Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Argosy Research Inc. (3217.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$660.47 - $2,350.04$2,159.07
Multi-Stage$304.22 - $332.60$318.15
Blended Fair Value$1,238.61
Current Price$159.50
Upside676.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS18.55%0.00%6.405.355.605.603.922.730.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.63%-4.46%0.00%42.92%43.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%2.95%5.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,065.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)576.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)488.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)213.04133.1579.89
Cash Retained (M)488.52488.52488.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-213.04-133.15-79.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.48355.37408.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1490.1490.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.063.944.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.406.406.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.063.944.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4510.3410.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$660.47$2,159.07$2,350.04
Upside / Downside314.09%1,253.65%1,373.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,065.191,134.431,208.161,286.691,370.331,459.401,503.18
Payout Ratio54.14%61.31%68.48%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)576.67695.52827.38973.451,135.011,313.461,390.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)643.85649.95656.06
Year 2 PV (M)709.03722.53736.16
Year 3 PV (M)772.23794.40816.99
Year 4 PV (M)833.51865.57898.54
Year 5 PV (M)892.91936.04980.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,572.1424,710.6825,892.80
Equity Value (M)27,423.6728,679.1829,981.37
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1490.1490.14
Fair Value$304.22$318.15$332.60
Upside / Downside90.74%99.47%108.53%

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