Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd. (3141.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,120.28 - $17,288.59$16,201.94
Multi-Stage$2,227.00 - $2,438.03$2,330.57
Blended Fair Value$9,266.26
Current Price$2,557.00
Upside262.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.74%19.43%34.9832.9531.0029.9726.9821.9720.9815.9811.749.81
YoY Growth--6.15%6.31%3.42%11.10%22.78%4.75%31.26%36.15%19.69%65.49%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.52%1.05%1.15%0.81%0.49%1.10%0.54%0.58%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,235.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,774.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,461.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,647.002,279.381,367.63
Cash Retained (M)14,461.0014,461.0014,461.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,647.00-2,279.38-1,367.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,814.0012,181.6313,093.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.76209.76209.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.5558.0762.42
LTM Dividend per Share17.9917.9917.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.5558.0762.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.5576.0780.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,120.28$16,201.94$17,288.59
Upside / Downside100.25%533.63%576.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,235.0019,420.2820,682.5922,026.9623,458.7124,983.5325,733.04
Payout Ratio20.70%34.56%48.42%62.28%76.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,774.006,711.1010,014.0713,718.0817,861.3022,485.1823,803.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,217.066,275.996,334.92
Year 2 PV (M)8,593.968,757.658,922.89
Year 3 PV (M)10,906.0511,219.1211,538.13
Year 4 PV (M)13,154.6213,660.5114,180.86
Year 5 PV (M)15,340.9816,081.9516,851.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)412,925.88432,870.36453,578.15
Equity Value (M)467,138.55488,865.58511,406.23
Shares Outstanding (M)209.76209.76209.76
Fair Value$2,227.00$2,330.57$2,438.03
Upside / Downside-12.91%-8.86%-4.65%

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