Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Province Xidian Pharmaceutical Sci-Tech Development Co.,Ltd (301130.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.05 - $95.62$89.55
Multi-Stage$157.68 - $174.19$165.77
Blended Fair Value$127.66
Current Price$30.00
Upside325.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720142013
DPS1.94%0.71%0.260.170.140.000.320.240.160.140.210.11
YoY Growth--54.81%23.08%0.00%-100.00%33.33%50.00%11.95%-33.76%93.47%-54.68%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.69%0.46%0.00%0.55%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.874.922.95
Cash Retained (M)19.2119.2119.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.87-4.92-2.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3414.2916.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.6876.6876.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate-21.47%-21.47%-21.47%
Growth Rate-1.29%-0.29%0.71%
Fair Value$81.05$89.55$95.62
Upside / Downside170.18%198.50%218.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.3539.2439.1239.0138.9038.7939.95
Payout Ratio51.19%58.95%66.71%74.47%82.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.1423.1326.1029.0531.9934.9136.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.47%-21.47%-21.47%
Growth Rate-1.29%-0.29%0.71%
Year 1 PV (M)29.1629.4529.75
Year 2 PV (M)41.4842.3343.18
Year 3 PV (M)58.2260.0061.83
Year 4 PV (M)80.8184.1487.56
Year 5 PV (M)111.18116.92122.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,769.2512,377.5813,010.81
Equity Value (M)12,090.1012,710.4213,356.03
Shares Outstanding (M)76.6876.6876.68
Fair Value$157.68$165.77$174.19
Upside / Downside425.59%452.56%480.62%

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