Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology Co., Ltd. (301022.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.38 - $8.79$6.91
Multi-Stage$16.55 - $18.24$17.38
Blended Fair Value$12.14
Current Price$35.92
Upside-66.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.280.220.220.010.020.000.010.060.000.00
YoY Growth--29.42%-0.76%3,437.15%-60.71%0.00%-100.00%-79.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.63%0.93%0.02%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.755.473.28
Cash Retained (M)15.2715.2715.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.75-5.47-3.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.529.8111.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.3488.3488.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.38$6.91$8.79
Upside / Downside-85.01%-80.78%-75.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.7443.3042.8742.4442.0241.6042.84
Payout Ratio65.08%70.07%75.05%80.03%85.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4730.3432.1733.9735.7237.4439.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28.5528.8429.13
Year 2 PV (M)28.4829.0729.66
Year 3 PV (M)28.2929.1730.06
Year 4 PV (M)27.9929.1530.35
Year 5 PV (M)27.6029.0430.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,321.211,390.011,461.65
Equity Value (M)1,462.131,535.271,611.37
Shares Outstanding (M)88.3488.3488.34
Fair Value$16.55$17.38$18.24
Upside / Downside-53.92%-51.61%-49.22%

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