Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Kitech New Material Holding Co.,Ltd. (300995.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $1.87$1.58
Multi-Stage$2.25 - $2.46$2.35
Blended Fair Value$1.97
Current Price$47.10
Upside-95.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.46%0.00%0.130.120.240.260.010.100.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.05%-49.15%-9.23%3,027.47%-91.86%9.36%3,037.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.55%1.11%1.10%0.02%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.181.991.19
Cash Retained (M)1.651.651.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.18-1.99-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.53-0.330.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.4983.4983.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.31$1.58$1.87
Upside / Downside-97.22%-96.64%-96.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.9115.7515.5915.4415.2815.1315.58
Payout Ratio89.60%89.68%89.76%89.84%89.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2514.1213.9913.8713.7413.6214.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.7812.9113.04
Year 2 PV (M)11.4511.6911.92
Year 3 PV (M)10.2610.5810.91
Year 4 PV (M)9.209.589.98
Year 5 PV (M)8.258.689.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)135.79142.86150.23
Equity Value (M)187.73196.30205.19
Shares Outstanding (M)83.4983.4983.49
Fair Value$2.25$2.35$2.46
Upside / Downside-95.23%-95.01%-94.78%

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