Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co.,Ltd (300976.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$431.96 - $508.92$476.93
Multi-Stage$119.82 - $131.32$125.46
Blended Fair Value$301.20
Current Price$72.80
Upside313.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS130.01%0.00%0.200.660.990.460.000.000.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth---70.17%-33.14%116.00%0.00%-100.00%-58.22%-49.31%3,194.83%-46.74%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%2.30%2.66%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)186.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.1236.3321.80
Cash Retained (M)186.06186.06186.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.12-36.33-21.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.94149.73164.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.56113.56113.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.321.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.321.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$431.96$476.93$508.92
Upside / Downside493.35%555.13%599.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.61309.50329.61351.04373.86398.16410.10
Payout Ratio35.98%46.78%57.59%68.39%79.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.55144.79189.81240.08296.08358.34379.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)136.30137.60138.89
Year 2 PV (M)168.22171.43174.66
Year 3 PV (M)200.31206.06211.92
Year 4 PV (M)232.56241.50250.70
Year 5 PV (M)264.98277.78291.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,604.8913,213.7113,845.83
Equity Value (M)13,607.2614,248.0714,913.07
Shares Outstanding (M)113.56113.56113.56
Fair Value$119.82$125.46$131.32
Upside / Downside64.59%72.34%80.38%

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