Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Qinhuangdao Tianqin Equipment Manufacturing Co.,Ltd. (300922.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.81 - $53.41$19.11
Multi-Stage$7.31 - $8.00$7.65
Blended Fair Value$13.38
Current Price$27.57
Upside-51.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.07%6.37%0.150.100.250.250.000.080.320.350.040.02
YoY Growth--48.52%-60.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.00%-8.35%752.64%77.58%-71.07%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.77%1.43%1.26%0.00%0.30%1.21%1.32%0.16%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.465.293.17
Cash Retained (M)14.3514.3514.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.46-5.29-3.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.899.0611.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.85155.85155.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.37%5.37%6.37%
Fair Value$9.81$19.11$53.41
Upside / Downside-64.41%-30.69%93.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.2944.5746.9649.4952.1554.9556.60
Payout Ratio66.08%70.86%75.65%80.43%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9531.5835.5339.8044.4449.4552.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.37%5.37%6.37%
Year 1 PV (M)29.3229.6029.88
Year 2 PV (M)30.6231.2131.81
Year 3 PV (M)31.8632.7833.72
Year 4 PV (M)33.0234.3035.63
Year 5 PV (M)34.1235.7937.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)980.601,028.481,078.22
Equity Value (M)1,139.541,192.171,246.78
Shares Outstanding (M)155.85155.85155.85
Fair Value$7.31$7.65$8.00
Upside / Downside-73.48%-72.25%-70.98%

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