Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Onechance Tech Crop. (300792.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.20 - $3.12$2.65
Multi-Stage$3.34 - $3.66$3.50
Blended Fair Value$3.08
Current Price$35.00
Upside-91.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.28%0.00%0.140.150.260.340.340.130.220.060.000.00
YoY Growth---12.23%-40.44%-23.26%-0.57%167.13%-41.18%240.00%9,892.89%309.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.80%0.75%0.87%0.58%0.15%1.06%0.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.959.975.98
Cash Retained (M)56.0756.0756.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.95-9.97-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1246.1050.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.63236.63236.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.20$2.65$3.12
Upside / Downside-93.71%-92.42%-91.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7378.9378.1477.3676.5975.8278.10
Payout Ratio29.68%41.74%53.81%65.87%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6632.9542.0550.9659.6968.2472.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6529.9530.26
Year 2 PV (M)34.0534.7535.46
Year 3 PV (M)37.1438.2939.46
Year 4 PV (M)39.1540.7842.45
Year 5 PV (M)40.2842.3844.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)609.60641.34674.39
Equity Value (M)789.88827.49866.58
Shares Outstanding (M)236.63236.63236.63
Fair Value$3.34$3.50$3.66
Upside / Downside-90.46%-90.01%-89.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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