Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ginlong Technologies Co., Ltd. (300763.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$378.69 - $446.16$418.12
Multi-Stage$247.94 - $272.07$259.78
Blended Fair Value$338.95
Current Price$92.57
Upside266.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.46%48.52%0.201.030.270.380.350.200.000.060.010.00
YoY Growth---80.49%284.56%-28.96%7.50%70.58%0.00%-100.00%436.94%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%1.61%0.20%0.27%0.59%1.29%0.00%0.66%0.12%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)347.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)540.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.55110.9766.58
Cash Retained (M)540.05540.05540.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.55-110.97-66.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)362.50429.08473.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)395.71395.71395.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.081.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.081.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.962.08
WACC / Discount Rate3.12%3.12%3.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$378.69$418.12$446.16
Upside / Downside309.09%351.68%381.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.74945.451,006.901,072.351,142.051,216.291,252.77
Payout Ratio39.17%49.33%59.50%69.67%79.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)347.69466.42599.10747.07911.741,094.661,158.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.12%3.12%3.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)448.03452.28456.53
Year 2 PV (M)552.81563.34573.97
Year 3 PV (M)662.18681.19700.56
Year 4 PV (M)776.29806.15836.85
Year 5 PV (M)895.31938.55983.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,778.4699,356.30104,109.34
Equity Value (M)98,113.09102,797.81107,660.70
Shares Outstanding (M)395.71395.71395.71
Fair Value$247.94$259.78$272.07
Upside / Downside167.84%180.63%193.91%

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