Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Todaytec Digital Co., Ltd (300743.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.26 - $143.01$134.02
Multi-Stage$22.93 - $25.07$23.98
Blended Fair Value$79.00
Current Price$17.89
Upside341.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.05%16.37%0.370.270.160.220.140.130.110.110.090.15
YoY Growth--38.85%69.34%-27.24%55.11%6.33%23.25%-0.45%18.66%-39.27%82.62%
Dividend Yield--2.37%2.32%1.14%1.64%1.42%1.10%0.57%1.07%0.90%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.8713.678.20
Cash Retained (M)30.8030.8030.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.87-13.67-8.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.9217.1322.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)152.08152.08152.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.26$134.02$143.01
Upside / Downside326.29%649.15%699.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.36116.47124.04132.10140.69149.84154.33
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.74%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.5787.9098.12109.30121.51134.85142.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.9282.7083.47
Year 2 PV (M)85.2286.8488.48
Year 3 PV (M)88.4691.0093.59
Year 4 PV (M)91.6695.1898.81
Year 5 PV (M)94.8099.38104.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,044.833,191.903,344.60
Equity Value (M)3,486.893,647.003,813.08
Shares Outstanding (M)152.08152.08152.08
Fair Value$22.93$23.98$25.07
Upside / Downside28.16%34.04%40.15%

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