Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300702.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.24 - $109.22$36.32
Multi-Stage$15.09 - $16.54$15.80
Blended Fair Value$26.06
Current Price$25.80
Upside1.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.76%6.11%0.200.150.100.280.260.080.050.090.130.07
YoY Growth--37.32%46.90%-64.00%6.10%233.28%51.86%-39.39%-34.90%81.99%-35.38%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.91%0.43%0.60%0.48%0.17%0.27%0.57%1.10%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.3523.9714.38
Cash Retained (M)142.98142.98142.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.35-23.97-14.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.63119.01128.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)344.64344.64344.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Fair Value$19.24$36.32$109.22
Upside / Downside-25.44%40.77%323.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191.75201.55211.85222.68234.06246.02253.40
Payout Ratio25.44%38.35%51.26%64.17%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.7877.29108.60142.90180.43221.42234.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)71.8772.5673.25
Year 2 PV (M)93.9095.7197.54
Year 3 PV (M)114.90118.24121.65
Year 4 PV (M)134.89140.15145.56
Year 5 PV (M)153.93161.46169.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,629.724,856.385,091.83
Equity Value (M)5,199.215,444.505,699.12
Shares Outstanding (M)344.64344.64344.64
Fair Value$15.09$15.80$16.54
Upside / Downside-41.53%-38.77%-35.90%

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