Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.,Ltd. (300693.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$236.08 - $278.14$260.66
Multi-Stage$161.52 - $177.25$169.24
Blended Fair Value$214.95
Current Price$41.38
Upside419.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.11%0.00%0.350.160.090.080.050.050.090.040.000.00
YoY Growth--123.23%66.63%18.14%50.16%-2.50%-38.41%110.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.51%0.24%0.46%0.45%0.82%1.07%0.45%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)435.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)160.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.0054.3832.63
Cash Retained (M)274.55274.55274.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.00-54.38-32.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)187.55220.18241.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)311.04311.04311.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.710.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.710.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$236.08$260.66$278.14
Upside / Downside470.52%529.92%572.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)435.02463.30493.41525.48559.64596.01613.90
Payout Ratio36.89%47.51%58.13%68.75%79.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)160.47220.11286.83361.29444.23536.41567.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)213.34215.37217.39
Year 2 PV (M)269.47274.60279.78
Year 3 PV (M)328.99338.43348.05
Year 4 PV (M)392.07407.15422.65
Year 5 PV (M)458.88481.04504.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,577.2150,923.5153,359.61
Equity Value (M)50,239.9652,640.0955,131.54
Shares Outstanding (M)311.04311.04311.04
Fair Value$161.52$169.24$177.25
Upside / Downside290.34%308.98%328.34%

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