Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Meili High Technology Co., Ltd. (300611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.26 - $137.07$106.27
Multi-Stage$16.98 - $18.58$17.77
Blended Fair Value$62.02
Current Price$26.25
Upside136.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.76%14.69%0.130.030.120.120.100.100.120.110.010.01
YoY Growth--339.33%-75.67%-0.69%18.06%5.58%-18.38%11.17%1,956.52%-54.68%-64.82%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.32%1.37%1.27%1.20%1.22%1.08%0.87%0.02%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.1818.2410.94
Cash Retained (M)103.71103.71103.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.18-18.24-10.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.5385.4892.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.69211.69211.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.26$106.27$137.07
Upside / Downside38.12%304.82%422.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.90155.38165.48176.23187.69199.89205.89
Payout Ratio28.91%41.13%53.35%65.57%77.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.1863.9188.28115.55145.99179.90190.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.1159.6760.23
Year 2 PV (M)75.5276.9678.41
Year 3 PV (M)91.4294.0596.72
Year 4 PV (M)106.83110.94115.17
Year 5 PV (M)121.76127.64133.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,140.503,292.193,449.69
Equity Value (M)3,595.153,761.453,933.96
Shares Outstanding (M)211.69211.69211.69
Fair Value$16.98$17.77$18.58
Upside / Downside-35.30%-32.31%-29.20%

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