Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co., Ltd (300457.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.21 - $19.81$13.14
Multi-Stage$6.64 - $7.26$6.95
Blended Fair Value$10.05
Current Price$34.49
Upside-70.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.90%38.28%0.180.220.100.070.100.080.110.100.020.01
YoY Growth---19.83%114.09%56.46%-30.75%17.38%-27.87%15.25%436.71%59.59%64.41%
Dividend Yield--0.90%1.47%0.54%0.24%0.59%0.23%0.65%0.55%0.10%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9038.6923.21
Cash Retained (M)270.71270.71270.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.90-38.69-23.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.81232.02247.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)641.05641.05641.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.21$13.14$19.81
Upside / Downside-73.29%-61.89%-42.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.48329.60351.02373.84398.14424.02436.74
Payout Ratio12.53%28.02%43.52%59.01%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.7792.36152.75220.61296.64381.62403.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.2484.0284.81
Year 2 PV (M)124.06126.42128.81
Year 3 PV (M)161.46166.09170.82
Year 4 PV (M)195.65203.17210.91
Year 5 PV (M)226.83237.78249.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,468.493,636.023,809.96
Equity Value (M)4,259.724,453.524,654.47
Shares Outstanding (M)641.05641.05641.05
Fair Value$6.64$6.95$7.26
Upside / Downside-80.73%-79.86%-78.95%

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