Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jinlei Technology Co., Ltd. (300443.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.28 - $40.89$27.37
Multi-Stage$13.99 - $15.29$14.63
Blended Fair Value$21.00
Current Price$29.99
Upside-29.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.65%39.20%0.340.150.030.490.130.070.000.130.090.00
YoY Growth--123.93%489.32%-94.73%266.51%80.00%305,278.77%-99.98%46.47%1,910.82%-63.65%
Dividend Yield--1.61%0.69%0.06%1.46%0.44%0.55%0.00%0.91%0.33%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.7541.1024.66
Cash Retained (M)284.06284.06284.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.75-41.10-24.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.30242.96259.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.01320.01320.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.28$27.37$40.89
Upside / Downside-35.72%-8.74%36.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.77350.14372.90397.14422.95450.44463.95
Payout Ratio13.60%28.88%44.16%59.44%74.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.71101.12164.67236.06316.03405.40429.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.0691.9392.79
Year 2 PV (M)133.55136.10138.66
Year 3 PV (M)172.41177.36182.40
Year 4 PV (M)207.87215.87224.09
Year 5 PV (M)240.14251.74263.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,632.603,808.053,990.23
Equity Value (M)4,477.644,681.044,891.96
Shares Outstanding (M)320.01320.01320.01
Fair Value$13.99$14.63$15.29
Upside / Downside-53.34%-51.22%-49.03%

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