Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Tongda Island New Materials Co.,Ltd. (300321.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.47 - $0.64$0.55
Multi-Stage$0.81 - $0.89$0.85
Blended Fair Value$0.70
Current Price$41.11
Upside-98.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.030.030.200.400.060.060.100.180.09
YoY Growth---100.00%9.29%-84.00%-50.00%566.67%0.00%-40.00%-43.66%100.56%59.46%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.19%0.19%1.11%2.35%0.36%0.37%0.56%0.58%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.591.000.60
Cash Retained (M)4.154.154.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.59-1.00-0.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.553.153.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.7788.7788.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-4.70%-3.70%-2.70%
Fair Value$0.47$0.55$0.64
Upside / Downside-98.86%-98.65%-98.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.967.677.397.116.856.606.80
Payout Ratio47.95%56.36%64.77%73.18%81.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.824.324.785.215.595.946.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-4.70%-3.70%-2.70%
Year 1 PV (M)3.893.933.97
Year 2 PV (M)3.873.964.04
Year 3 PV (M)3.793.914.04
Year 4 PV (M)3.673.823.98
Year 5 PV (M)3.513.693.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)53.3056.1559.13
Equity Value (M)72.0375.4779.05
Shares Outstanding (M)88.7788.7788.77
Fair Value$0.81$0.85$0.89
Upside / Downside-98.03%-97.93%-97.83%

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