Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Changelight Co., Ltd. (300102.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.69 - $10.91$5.83
Multi-Stage$2.52 - $2.75$2.63
Blended Fair Value$4.23
Current Price$12.52
Upside-66.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.43%-3.62%0.040.070.010.110.110.020.020.010.000.01
YoY Growth---34.67%360.91%-86.61%2.85%461.80%-18.19%203.78%7,466.90%-99.21%-80.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.92%0.19%1.21%1.72%0.38%0.32%0.09%0.00%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.0416.9010.14
Cash Retained (M)71.0471.0471.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.04-16.90-10.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.9954.1360.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)930.59930.59930.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.69$5.83$10.91
Upside / Downside-70.53%-53.46%-12.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.22144.01153.37163.34173.95185.26190.82
Payout Ratio47.47%55.97%64.48%72.99%81.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.1880.6098.89119.21141.76166.73176.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.3774.0774.76
Year 2 PV (M)81.9483.5085.08
Year 3 PV (M)89.9292.5095.13
Year 4 PV (M)97.33101.08104.93
Year 5 PV (M)104.21109.25114.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,894.231,985.722,080.71
Equity Value (M)2,341.012,446.122,555.09
Shares Outstanding (M)930.59930.59930.59
Fair Value$2.52$2.63$2.75
Upside / Downside-79.91%-79.01%-78.07%

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