Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sanchuan Wisdom Technology Co., Ltd. (300066.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.47 - $5.25$3.51
Multi-Stage$1.82 - $1.99$1.90
Blended Fair Value$2.70
Current Price$6.38
Upside-57.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.74%14.49%0.060.030.030.040.050.020.020.020.030.02
YoY Growth--93.43%0.00%-25.00%-20.36%151.15%0.00%0.00%-37.50%33.37%59.99%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.74%0.50%0.81%1.11%0.42%0.41%0.44%0.50%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2317.0210.21
Cash Retained (M)100.43100.43100.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.23-17.02-10.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.2083.4290.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,039.461,039.461,039.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.47$3.51$5.25
Upside / Downside-61.33%-45.03%-17.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.15145.00154.43164.46175.15186.54192.14
Payout Ratio26.23%38.99%51.74%64.49%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.7256.5379.90106.07135.30167.89177.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.9251.4051.88
Year 2 PV (M)64.8266.0667.30
Year 3 PV (M)77.5179.7382.00
Year 4 PV (M)89.0592.4896.00
Year 5 PV (M)99.53104.34109.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,509.351,582.251,657.94
Equity Value (M)1,891.181,976.252,064.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,039.461,039.461,039.46
Fair Value$1.82$1.90$1.99
Upside / Downside-71.48%-70.20%-68.87%

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