Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Doushen (Beijing) Education & Technology Inc. (300010.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.15 - $0.19$0.17
Multi-Stage$0.29 - $0.32$0.30
Blended Fair Value$0.24
Current Price$8.28
Upside-97.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.93%7.02%0.020.000.000.060.040.040.040.030.010.02
YoY Growth--18,306.47%-81.48%-99.08%29.81%15.38%4.70%27.09%276.74%-56.49%91.40%
Dividend Yield--0.22%0.00%0.01%1.61%0.63%0.24%0.34%0.25%0.05%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.6114.758.85
Cash Retained (M)82.1582.1582.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.61-14.75-8.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.5467.4073.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.092,061.092,061.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-15.93%-14.93%-13.93%
Fair Value$0.15$0.17$0.19
Upside / Downside-98.21%-97.93%-97.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.03100.4185.4172.6661.8152.5854.16
Payout Ratio30.40%42.32%54.24%66.16%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.8842.4946.3348.0748.2647.3250.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-15.93%-14.93%-13.93%
Year 1 PV (M)38.1838.6339.09
Year 2 PV (M)37.4038.2939.20
Year 3 PV (M)34.8636.1237.41
Year 4 PV (M)31.4532.9734.55
Year 5 PV (M)27.7029.3931.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)419.29444.83471.60
Equity Value (M)588.88620.23653.00
Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.092,061.092,061.09
Fair Value$0.29$0.30$0.32
Upside / Downside-96.55%-96.37%-96.17%

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