Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Qingdao TGOOD Electric Co., Ltd. (300001.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.48 - $218.08$76.02
Multi-Stage$22.18 - $24.28$23.21
Blended Fair Value$49.61
Current Price$27.16
Upside82.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.03%16.78%0.220.140.240.230.210.330.290.170.070.07
YoY Growth--53.11%-40.76%5.61%7.55%-36.12%14.12%71.00%141.96%-1.62%54.35%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.72%1.36%1.22%0.83%1.70%1.25%1.27%0.43%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,155.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,088.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)231.13144.4686.67
Cash Retained (M)1,088.721,088.721,088.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-231.13-144.46-86.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)857.59944.261,002.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,053.901,053.901,053.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.48$76.02$218.08
Upside / Downside45.36%179.88%702.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,155.661,230.781,310.781,395.981,486.721,583.361,630.86
Payout Ratio5.79%22.63%39.48%56.32%73.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.94278.58517.44786.181,087.661,425.021,508.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)255.89258.31260.74
Year 2 PV (M)436.59444.90453.30
Year 3 PV (M)609.31626.80644.62
Year 4 PV (M)774.32804.09834.72
Year 5 PV (M)931.86976.871,023.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,363.8821,347.4622,368.69
Equity Value (M)23,371.8424,458.4425,585.67
Shares Outstanding (M)1,053.901,053.901,053.90
Fair Value$22.18$23.21$24.28
Upside / Downside-18.35%-14.55%-10.61%

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