Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. (2099.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.15 - $13.21$10.42
Multi-Stage$11.26 - $12.37$11.81
Blended Fair Value$11.12
Current Price$9.04
Upside22.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.370.250.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%48.00%104.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.92%6.85%3.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)262.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.9436.8422.10
Cash Retained (M)262.99262.99262.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.94-36.84-22.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.05226.15240.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)396.41396.41396.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate0.85%1.85%2.85%
Fair Value$8.15$10.42$13.21
Upside / Downside-9.80%15.31%46.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.70300.15305.71311.36317.12322.99332.68
Payout Ratio10.76%26.61%42.46%58.30%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.7179.87129.79181.54235.15290.69307.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate0.85%1.85%2.85%
Year 1 PV (M)73.0973.8174.54
Year 2 PV (M)108.69110.85113.04
Year 3 PV (M)139.11143.29147.55
Year 4 PV (M)164.90171.53178.37
Year 5 PV (M)186.53195.97205.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,793.283,985.114,184.63
Equity Value (M)4,465.594,680.564,903.90
Shares Outstanding (M)396.41396.41396.41
Fair Value$11.26$11.81$12.37
Upside / Downside24.61%30.61%36.84%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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