Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Century Wind Power Co., Ltd. (2072.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$193.60 - $299.57$242.73
Multi-Stage$442.99 - $487.57$464.85
Blended Fair Value$353.79
Current Price$364.50
Upside-2.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%3.030.003.033.610.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-16.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.00%2.68%2.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,882.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,440.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,442.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)576.54360.34216.20
Cash Retained (M)1,442.721,442.721,442.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-576.54-360.34-216.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)866.171,082.381,226.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.65138.65138.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.257.818.85
LTM Dividend per Share10.3910.3910.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.257.818.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6318.1919.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$193.60$242.73$299.57
Upside / Downside-46.89%-33.41%-17.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,882.722,853.892,825.352,797.102,769.132,741.432,823.68
Payout Ratio49.95%57.96%65.97%73.98%81.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,440.001,654.181,863.932,069.322,270.422,467.292,611.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,538.691,554.391,570.09
Year 2 PV (M)1,612.751,645.831,679.25
Year 3 PV (M)1,665.461,716.971,769.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,699.731,770.181,842.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,718.161,807.631,900.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,186.9355,956.5058,840.26
Equity Value (M)61,421.7364,451.5067,602.70
Shares Outstanding (M)138.65138.65138.65
Fair Value$442.99$464.85$487.57
Upside / Downside21.53%27.53%33.76%

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