Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Toenec Corporation (1946.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,804.02 - $5,672.70$3,913.30
Multi-Stage$2,894.08 - $3,173.31$3,031.08
Blended Fair Value$3,472.19
Current Price$1,398.00
Upside148.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.58%14.84%48.1522.1227.1226.1327.1429.1219.0918.0914.0910.06
YoY Growth--117.67%-18.43%3.79%-3.73%-6.80%52.51%5.54%28.44%40.04%-16.68%
Dividend Yield--3.94%1.86%3.77%3.73%3.76%3.91%3.03%2.72%2.02%1.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,117.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,810.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,023.401,889.631,133.78
Cash Retained (M)13,810.0013,810.0013,810.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,023.40-1,889.63-1,133.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,786.6011,920.3812,676.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.8592.8592.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share116.17128.38136.52
LTM Dividend per Share14.0814.0814.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share116.17128.38136.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend130.24142.45150.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate3.16%4.16%5.16%
Fair Value$2,804.02$3,913.30$5,672.70
Upside / Downside100.57%179.92%305.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,117.0015,746.0816,401.3417,083.8717,794.8018,535.3219,091.38
Payout Ratio8.65%24.92%41.19%57.46%73.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,307.003,923.416,755.319,816.1113,119.9616,681.7917,659.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate3.16%4.16%5.16%
Year 1 PV (M)3,599.473,634.363,669.25
Year 2 PV (M)5,685.855,796.625,908.45
Year 3 PV (M)7,579.927,802.508,029.38
Year 4 PV (M)9,294.659,660.3110,036.67
Year 5 PV (M)10,842.2211,378.0011,934.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)231,724.86243,175.90255,075.22
Equity Value (M)268,726.96281,447.68294,653.74
Shares Outstanding (M)92.8592.8592.85
Fair Value$2,894.08$3,031.08$3,173.31
Upside / Downside107.02%116.82%126.99%

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