Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Prada S.p.A. (1913.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.93 - $123.63$115.86
Multi-Stage$72.33 - $79.37$75.79
Blended Fair Value$95.82
Current Price$5.26
Upside1,721.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS17.95%2.22%0.140.110.070.040.000.060.080.130.110.11
YoY Growth--24.55%57.14%100.00%0.00%-100.00%-20.00%-42.71%19.01%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.83%2.16%1.33%0.62%0.00%1.63%2.61%4.35%2.88%3.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,590.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)763.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)827.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)318.13198.83119.30
Cash Retained (M)827.64827.64827.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-318.13-198.83-119.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)509.51628.81708.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,558.822,558.822,558.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate2.09%2.09%2.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$104.93$115.86$123.63
Upside / Downside1,894.90%2,102.60%2,250.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,590.651,694.041,804.151,921.422,046.322,179.332,244.71
Payout Ratio47.97%56.37%64.78%73.19%81.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)763.01955.011,168.751,406.241,669.661,961.392,076.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.09%2.09%2.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)926.68935.47944.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,100.441,121.401,142.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,284.771,321.651,359.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,480.181,537.111,595.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,687.221,768.721,853.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)178,611.32187,238.31196,195.48
Equity Value (M)185,090.61193,922.65203,090.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,558.822,558.822,558.82
Fair Value$72.33$75.79$79.37
Upside / Downside1,275.18%1,340.80%1,408.91%

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