Definitive Analysis
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Haitian International Holdings Limited (1882.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$307.86 - $754.14$706.74
Multi-Stage$109.56 - $119.93$114.65
Blended Fair Value$410.70
Current Price$18.61
Upside2,106.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.24%8.96%0.600.480.771.180.390.350.440.390.300.27
YoY Growth--24.35%-37.71%-34.24%204.28%9.91%-20.18%12.56%28.60%10.77%8.17%
Dividend Yield--3.02%2.74%4.19%6.67%1.71%2.08%3.32%1.99%2.23%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,052.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,032.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,019.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,210.42756.51453.91
Cash Retained (M)4,019.664,019.664,019.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,210.42-756.51-453.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,809.243,263.153,565.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,596.001,596.001,596.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.762.042.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.762.042.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.033.323.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$307.86$706.74$754.14
Upside / Downside1,554.28%3,697.64%3,952.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,052.096,445.486,864.437,310.627,785.818,291.898,540.64
Payout Ratio33.58%44.87%56.15%67.43%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,032.432,891.813,854.334,929.766,128.717,462.707,900.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,688.822,714.312,739.80
Year 2 PV (M)3,332.223,395.683,459.75
Year 3 PV (M)3,962.804,076.554,192.47
Year 4 PV (M)4,580.754,756.914,938.11
Year 5 PV (M)5,186.275,436.775,696.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)155,109.99162,601.86170,380.46
Equity Value (M)174,860.85182,982.09191,407.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,596.001,596.001,596.00
Fair Value$109.56$114.65$119.93
Upside / Downside488.73%516.07%544.44%

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