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China Isotope & Radiation Corporation (1763.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.87 - $72.69$52.66
Multi-Stage$48.01 - $52.63$50.27
Blended Fair Value$51.47
Current Price$13.54
Upside280.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%0.00%0.390.440.380.180.140.310.280.551.000.00
YoY Growth---12.53%16.62%109.60%29.80%-55.67%10.74%-49.02%-44.35%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.74%3.20%1.01%0.62%1.67%2.08%3.32%5.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)822.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)558.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.54102.8461.70
Cash Retained (M)558.43558.43558.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.54-102.84-61.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)393.89455.59496.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)319.87319.87319.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.421.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.421.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate2.23%3.23%4.23%
Fair Value$38.87$52.66$72.69
Upside / Downside187.08%288.93%436.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)822.71849.32876.79905.14934.42964.64993.58
Payout Ratio32.12%43.70%55.27%66.85%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.28371.14484.63605.08732.81868.17919.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate2.23%3.23%4.23%
Year 1 PV (M)341.44344.78348.12
Year 2 PV (M)410.17418.23426.38
Year 3 PV (M)471.13485.09499.32
Year 4 PV (M)524.92545.76567.22
Year 5 PV (M)572.11600.65630.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,036.2713,686.4414,362.29
Equity Value (M)15,356.0416,080.9516,833.63
Shares Outstanding (M)319.87319.87319.87
Fair Value$48.01$50.27$52.63
Upside / Downside254.55%271.29%288.67%

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