Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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3SBio Inc. (1530.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.25 - $252.75$92.78
Multi-Stage$31.43 - $34.37$32.87
Blended Fair Value$62.83
Current Price$21.57
Upside191.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.41%-1.70%0.230.090.170.000.000.010.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--146.83%-46.09%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-89.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.96%1.35%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.07%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,017.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,237.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)803.44502.15301.29
Cash Retained (M)3,237.223,237.223,237.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-803.44-502.15-301.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,433.782,735.072,935.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.552,454.552,454.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.111.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.111.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.25$92.78$252.75
Upside / Downside142.22%330.12%1,071.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,017.194,278.304,556.394,852.565,167.975,503.895,669.01
Payout Ratio19.42%33.53%47.65%61.77%75.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.971,434.632,171.102,997.253,921.624,953.505,243.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,314.141,326.591,339.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,821.721,856.421,891.44
Year 3 PV (M)2,303.702,369.832,437.21
Year 4 PV (M)2,761.022,867.202,976.42
Year 5 PV (M)3,194.603,348.903,509.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,745.0068,920.5172,217.55
Equity Value (M)77,140.1880,689.4584,370.78
Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.552,454.552,454.55
Fair Value$31.43$32.87$34.37
Upside / Downside45.70%52.40%59.36%

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