Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Al Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker Company (1214.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.42 - $20.76$16.82
Multi-Stage$30.27 - $33.33$31.77
Blended Fair Value$24.30
Current Price$27.10
Upside-10.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.850.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.73%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.0210.016.01
Cash Retained (M)52.3452.3452.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.02-10.01-6.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.3242.3346.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.4955.4955.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.760.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.760.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.42$16.82$20.76
Upside / Downside-50.48%-37.92%-23.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.0979.2978.5077.7176.9476.1778.45
Payout Ratio34.65%45.72%56.79%67.86%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.7536.2544.5852.7360.7268.5572.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)33.7234.0634.40
Year 2 PV (M)38.5639.3540.15
Year 3 PV (M)42.4343.7445.08
Year 4 PV (M)45.4447.3249.26
Year 5 PV (M)47.7150.1952.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,471.561,548.191,627.98
Equity Value (M)1,679.421,762.861,849.66
Shares Outstanding (M)55.4955.4955.49
Fair Value$30.27$31.77$33.33
Upside / Downside11.69%17.23%23.01%

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