Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lonza Group AG (0QNO.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$583.66 - $2,939.87$1,044.55
Multi-Stage$381.13 - $416.63$398.55
Blended Fair Value$721.55
Current Price$565.00
Upside27.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.14%9.90%3.993.613.093.122.832.832.862.221.821.82
YoY Growth--10.77%16.59%-0.89%10.29%0.00%-0.97%28.75%22.14%0.00%16.96%
Dividend Yield--0.75%1.02%0.68%0.41%0.50%0.80%1.12%0.84%1.11%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,306.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)569.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)737.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)261.20163.2597.95
Cash Retained (M)737.00737.00737.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-261.20-163.25-97.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)475.80573.75639.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.607.968.86
LTM Dividend per Share7.897.897.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.607.968.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.4915.8516.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.14%6.14%7.14%
Fair Value$583.66$1,044.55$2,939.87
Upside / Downside3.30%84.88%420.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,306.001,386.191,471.311,561.651,657.541,759.311,812.09
Payout Ratio43.57%52.85%62.14%71.43%80.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)569.00732.66914.281,115.441,337.861,583.381,676.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.14%6.14%7.14%
Year 1 PV (M)673.56679.96686.37
Year 2 PV (M)772.71787.48802.39
Year 3 PV (M)866.66891.63917.07
Year 4 PV (M)955.61992.491,030.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,039.741,090.141,142.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,167.8824,290.8025,456.85
Equity Value (M)27,476.1628,732.5030,035.56
Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
Fair Value$381.13$398.55$416.63
Upside / Downside-32.54%-29.46%-26.26%

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