Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.75 - $12.55 | $10.61 |
| Multi-Stage | $14.05 - $15.45 | $14.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.67 | |
| Current Price | $15.51 | |
| Upside | -18.30% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.52% | -9.39% | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 0.98 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 290.00% | 5.26% | -75.32% | 1.32% | 0.00% | -66.96% | -67.61% | 1.00% | 80.72% | 86.12% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.07% | 0.26% | 0.35% | 2.01% | 0.71% | 0.53% | 1.54% | 4.76% | 4.71% | 2.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 499.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 79.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 420.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 99.80 | 62.38 | 37.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 420.00 | 420.00 | 420.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -99.80 | -62.38 | -37.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 320.20 | 357.63 | 382.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 395.50 | 395.50 | 395.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.18% | -1.18% | -0.18% |
| Fair Value | $8.75 | $10.61 | $12.55 |
| Upside / Downside | -43.58% | -31.59% | -19.08% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 499.00 | 493.09 | 487.25 | 481.48 | 475.78 | 470.15 | 484.25 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.83% | 30.67% | 45.50% | 60.33% | 75.17% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 79.00 | 151.21 | 221.69 | 290.49 | 357.63 | 423.13 | 447.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.18% | -1.18% | -0.18% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 137.20 | 138.60 | 140.00 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 182.51 | 186.26 | 190.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 216.99 | 223.71 | 230.57 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 242.38 | 252.44 | 262.82 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 260.20 | 273.77 | 287.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,517.05 | 4,752.71 | 4,998.11 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,556.32 | 5,827.50 | 6,109.46 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 395.50 | 395.50 | 395.50 |
| Fair Value | $14.05 | $14.73 | $15.45 |
| Upside / Downside | -9.42% | -5.00% | -0.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |