Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chinasoft International Limited (0354.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.14 - $87.66$31.47
Multi-Stage$9.87 - $10.81$10.33
Blended Fair Value$20.90
Current Price$4.55
Upside359.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.70%0.00%0.070.050.030.030.020.020.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--37.84%73.89%13.46%35.34%7.66%30.50%47.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.95%0.49%0.32%0.27%0.46%0.40%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,188.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)997.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.67148.5489.13
Cash Retained (M)997.66997.66997.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.67-148.54-89.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)759.99849.12908.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.462,685.462,685.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Fair Value$16.14$31.47$87.66
Upside / Downside254.64%591.59%1,826.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,188.351,260.571,337.181,418.451,504.661,596.111,643.99
Payout Ratio16.05%30.84%45.63%60.42%75.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190.68388.72610.13857.011,131.641,436.501,520.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Year 1 PV (M)358.58361.99365.41
Year 2 PV (M)519.18529.11539.14
Year 3 PV (M)672.73692.12711.87
Year 4 PV (M)819.44851.08883.63
Year 5 PV (M)959.541,006.071,054.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,175.9624,299.9525,467.14
Equity Value (M)26,505.4327,740.3329,021.58
Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.462,685.462,685.46
Fair Value$9.87$10.33$10.81
Upside / Downside116.92%127.03%137.52%

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