Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,395.35 - $2,215.32 | $1,768.90 |
| Multi-Stage | $3,127.63 - $3,439.05 | $3,280.30 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,524.60 | |
| Current Price | $1,798.00 | |
| Upside | 40.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.56% | 15.83% | 99.47 | 109.41 | 89.52 | 39.79 | 99.47 | 79.57 | 49.73 | 49.73 | 34.81 | 16.91 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -9.09% | 22.22% | 125.00% | -60.00% | 25.00% | 60.00% | 0.00% | 42.86% | 105.88% | -26.09% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.99% | 5.57% | 4.04% | 1.51% | 4.42% | 4.88% | 2.05% | 2.04% | 1.11% | 0.51% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,133.10 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,985.41 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,147.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,226.62 | 766.64 | 459.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,147.70 | 2,147.70 | 2,147.70 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,226.62 | -766.64 | -459.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 921.08 | 1,381.06 | 1,687.71 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 44.52 | 44.52 | 44.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 20.69 | 31.02 | 37.91 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 89.52 | 89.52 | 89.52 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 20.69 | 31.02 | 37.91 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 110.21 | 120.54 | 127.43 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.45% | -0.45% | 0.55% |
| Fair Value | $1,395.35 | $1,768.90 | $2,215.32 |
| Upside / Downside | -22.39% | -1.62% | 23.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,133.10 | 6,105.61 | 6,078.24 | 6,051.00 | 6,023.88 | 5,996.87 | 6,176.78 |
| Payout Ratio | 64.98% | 69.99% | 74.99% | 79.99% | 85.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,985.41 | 4,273.05 | 4,558.02 | 4,840.36 | 5,120.08 | 5,397.19 | 5,713.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -1.45% | -0.45% | 0.55% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,978.09 | 4,018.45 | 4,058.82 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,950.48 | 4,031.06 | 4,112.45 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,905.60 | 4,025.70 | 4,148.24 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,846.13 | 4,004.62 | 4,167.97 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,774.43 | 3,969.85 | 4,173.28 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 119,788.36 | 125,990.39 | 132,446.68 |
| Equity Value (M) | 139,243.09 | 146,040.08 | 153,107.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 44.52 | 44.52 | 44.52 |
| Fair Value | $3,127.63 | $3,280.30 | $3,439.05 |
| Upside / Downside | 73.95% | 82.44% | 91.27% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |