Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sempio Company (007540.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51,644.77 - $77,365.28$63,843.37
Multi-Stage$107,529.36 - $118,575.61$112,942.87
Blended Fair Value$88,393.12
Current Price$47,650.00
Upside85.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.91%-0.46%429.09592.89449.14449.14449.17449.11723.58453.81449.93449.54
YoY Growth---27.63%32.01%0.00%-0.01%0.01%-37.93%59.45%0.86%0.09%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.19%0.87%0.95%0.84%1.50%2.03%1.47%1.22%2.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,564.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)864.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,699.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,512.831,570.52942.31
Cash Retained (M)11,699.4411,699.4411,699.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,512.83-1,570.52-942.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,186.6110,128.9210,757.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.022.022.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share4,558.555,026.145,337.86
LTM Dividend per Share429.09429.09429.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share4,558.555,026.145,337.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,987.645,455.235,766.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-2.46%-1.46%-0.46%
Fair Value$51,644.77$63,843.37$77,365.28
Upside / Downside8.38%33.98%62.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,564.1712,380.1312,198.7912,020.1011,844.0311,670.5412,020.66
Payout Ratio6.88%23.51%40.13%56.75%73.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)864.722,910.074,895.316,821.778,690.7310,503.4911,119.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-2.46%-1.46%-0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)2,693.232,720.842,748.45
Year 2 PV (M)4,192.954,279.374,366.67
Year 3 PV (M)5,407.625,575.665,747.15
Year 4 PV (M)6,375.826,641.356,915.08
Year 5 PV (M)7,131.537,504.697,893.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)190,897.38200,886.19211,288.83
Equity Value (M)216,698.54227,608.11238,959.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2.022.022.02
Fair Value$107,529.36$112,942.87$118,575.61
Upside / Downside125.66%137.03%148.85%

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