Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co.,Ltd. (003026.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.31 - $23.96$13.03
Multi-Stage$5.55 - $6.07$5.80
Blended Fair Value$9.42
Current Price$37.76
Upside-75.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.38%25.31%0.080.240.510.760.000.020.030.140.020.03
YoY Growth---64.80%-53.68%-32.72%0.00%-100.00%-43.96%-76.04%698.51%-42.36%252.57%
Dividend Yield--0.29%1.11%1.37%1.73%0.00%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.795.503.30
Cash Retained (M)34.1334.1334.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.79-5.50-3.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.3428.6430.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.31$13.03$23.96
Upside / Downside-77.99%-65.49%-36.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.9646.8249.8653.1156.5660.2362.04
Payout Ratio22.37%35.89%49.42%62.95%76.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.8316.8124.6433.4343.2554.2157.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.2915.4315.58
Year 2 PV (M)20.4020.7921.18
Year 3 PV (M)25.1725.9026.63
Year 4 PV (M)29.6330.7731.94
Year 5 PV (M)33.7935.4237.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)608.09637.46667.95
Equity Value (M)732.37765.77800.40
Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
Fair Value$5.55$5.80$6.07
Upside / Downside-85.30%-84.63%-83.94%

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