Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. (003003.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.99 - $71.78$42.42
Multi-Stage$8.69 - $9.49$9.08
Blended Fair Value$25.75
Current Price$12.16
Upside111.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS191.88%22.71%0.110.030.100.150.030.000.000.000.010.01
YoY Growth--259.97%-69.66%-33.33%462.74%5,069.98%0.00%-100.00%-50.54%-34.01%-16.97%
Dividend Yield--1.14%0.32%0.98%1.39%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.05%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.617.884.73
Cash Retained (M)26.1426.1426.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.61-7.88-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.5318.2621.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)174.71174.71174.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.99$42.42$71.78
Upside / Downside39.73%248.86%490.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.0667.1671.5276.1781.1286.4088.99
Payout Ratio58.54%64.83%71.13%77.42%83.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.9243.5450.8758.9767.9177.7682.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.2040.5840.96
Year 2 PV (M)43.3644.1945.02
Year 3 PV (M)46.4147.7449.10
Year 4 PV (M)49.3451.2453.19
Year 5 PV (M)52.1754.6957.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,286.421,348.561,413.07
Equity Value (M)1,517.911,587.001,658.65
Shares Outstanding (M)174.71174.71174.71
Fair Value$8.69$9.08$9.49
Upside / Downside-28.55%-25.30%-21.93%

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