Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yantai China Pet Foods Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.02 - $289.44$271.25
Multi-Stage$40.16 - $43.95$42.02
Blended Fair Value$156.63
Current Price$53.21
Upside194.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.20%21.81%0.490.090.100.090.090.080.060.110.060.02
YoY Growth--431.06%-8.19%7.00%1.16%10.19%44.15%-45.12%71.95%248.07%-73.88%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.38%0.42%0.45%0.31%0.58%0.40%0.83%0.71%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.0355.6433.39
Cash Retained (M)263.89263.89263.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.03-55.64-33.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.86208.25230.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.86305.86305.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.02$271.25$289.44
Upside / Downside89.85%409.77%443.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.15474.08504.90537.72572.67609.89628.19
Payout Ratio40.72%50.57%60.43%70.29%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.26239.77305.12377.95458.96548.90581.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)222.57224.68226.79
Year 2 PV (M)262.91267.92272.98
Year 3 PV (M)302.31310.99319.83
Year 4 PV (M)340.77353.88367.36
Year 5 PV (M)378.32396.60415.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,777.7711,298.3411,838.83
Equity Value (M)12,284.6612,852.4113,441.36
Shares Outstanding (M)305.86305.86305.86
Fair Value$40.16$42.02$43.95
Upside / Downside-24.52%-21.03%-17.41%

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