Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co.,Ltd. (002852.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.34 - $162.84$152.61
Multi-Stage$25.44 - $27.85$26.62
Blended Fair Value$89.61
Current Price$11.16
Upside702.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.87%25.77%0.310.470.140.160.100.340.120.130.110.08
YoY Growth---35.25%230.21%-11.59%65.33%-70.88%179.03%-3.60%18.77%36.50%149.54%
Dividend Yield--3.50%5.40%1.18%1.29%0.75%2.27%0.73%0.69%0.26%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.2735.1721.10
Cash Retained (M)176.62176.62176.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.27-35.17-21.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.35141.45155.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)343.60343.60343.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$85.34$152.61$162.84
Upside / Downside664.67%1,267.46%1,359.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.35299.64319.11339.86361.95385.47397.04
Payout Ratio37.22%47.78%58.33%68.89%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.73143.17186.15234.13287.55346.93367.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)133.40134.67135.93
Year 2 PV (M)161.63164.71167.82
Year 3 PV (M)189.43194.86200.40
Year 4 PV (M)216.78225.12233.70
Year 5 PV (M)243.72255.49267.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,794.968,171.468,562.37
Equity Value (M)8,739.929,146.319,567.93
Shares Outstanding (M)343.60343.60343.60
Fair Value$25.44$26.62$27.85
Upside / Downside127.92%138.52%149.52%

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