Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co., Ltd. (002837.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.16 - $40.04$22.07
Multi-Stage$9.62 - $10.51$10.06
Blended Fair Value$16.06
Current Price$79.98
Upside-79.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.85%46.83%0.150.120.090.090.080.060.010.030.000.00
YoY Growth--30.77%31.91%-7.92%20.75%23.61%354.44%-55.55%1,714.98%-28.28%-25.28%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.63%0.58%0.77%0.42%0.23%0.09%0.19%0.01%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)498.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)330.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.8062.3737.42
Cash Retained (M)330.03330.03330.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.80-62.37-37.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)230.24267.66292.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)867.71867.71867.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.16$22.07$40.04
Upside / Downside-82.30%-72.41%-49.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)498.98531.41565.95602.74641.92683.64704.15
Payout Ratio33.86%45.09%56.32%67.54%78.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.95239.60318.72407.11505.65615.28651.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)217.89219.96222.02
Year 2 PV (M)263.59268.61273.68
Year 3 PV (M)306.20314.99323.94
Year 4 PV (M)345.86359.16372.84
Year 5 PV (M)382.72401.21420.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,834.337,164.437,507.17
Equity Value (M)8,350.608,728.369,120.06
Shares Outstanding (M)867.71867.71867.71
Fair Value$9.62$10.06$10.51
Upside / Downside-87.97%-87.42%-86.86%

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