Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tibet AIM Pharm. Inc. (002826.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.58 - $27.98$16.17
Multi-Stage$9.15 - $10.02$9.58
Blended Fair Value$12.87
Current Price$19.30
Upside-33.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.18%6.34%0.030.110.110.080.040.030.060.060.020.00
YoY Growth---70.24%2.61%29.42%99.09%34.77%-50.00%0.00%225.28%356.65%-76.52%
Dividend Yield--0.30%1.23%0.98%0.69%0.46%0.31%0.49%0.32%0.07%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.1710.736.44
Cash Retained (M)66.4766.4766.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.17-10.73-6.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.3055.7460.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.24187.24187.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$10.58$16.17$27.98
Upside / Downside-45.16%-16.23%45.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.8790.2394.8199.63104.68110.00113.30
Payout Ratio22.59%36.07%49.55%63.04%76.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.4032.5546.9862.8080.1099.00104.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9430.2330.51
Year 2 PV (M)39.7540.5241.29
Year 3 PV (M)48.8750.2951.74
Year 4 PV (M)57.3359.5761.87
Year 5 PV (M)65.1868.3771.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,472.831,544.961,619.88
Equity Value (M)1,713.901,793.931,876.99
Shares Outstanding (M)187.24187.24187.24
Fair Value$9.15$9.58$10.02
Upside / Downside-52.57%-50.36%-48.06%

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