Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Huijie Group Co., Ltd. (002763.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.74 - $5.02$3.69
Multi-Stage$4.87 - $5.35$5.10
Blended Fair Value$4.40
Current Price$7.01
Upside-37.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.29%8.72%0.400.500.001.010.400.430.290.210.160.15
YoY Growth---20.00%0.00%-100.00%149.43%-6.10%50.00%35.00%33.33%4.91%-13.09%
Dividend Yield--6.05%6.64%0.00%11.45%5.61%5.82%3.04%1.67%0.93%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.659.785.87
Cash Retained (M)16.7416.7416.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.65-9.78-5.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.106.9710.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.68407.68407.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Fair Value$2.74$3.69$5.02
Upside / Downside-60.85%-47.41%-28.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.2379.5780.9282.3083.7085.1287.68
Payout Ratio78.60%80.88%83.16%85.44%87.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.4964.3567.2970.3173.4276.6181.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9260.5261.11
Year 2 PV (M)58.3559.5160.69
Year 3 PV (M)56.7758.4860.22
Year 4 PV (M)55.2057.4359.72
Year 5 PV (M)53.6456.3559.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,702.591,788.821,878.51
Equity Value (M)1,986.472,081.112,179.43
Shares Outstanding (M)407.68407.68407.68
Fair Value$4.87$5.10$5.35
Upside / Downside-30.49%-27.18%-23.74%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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