Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Selon Industrial Co., Ltd. (002748.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.57 - $33.70$31.56
Multi-Stage$45.13 - $49.80$47.42
Blended Fair Value$39.49
Current Price$9.84
Upside301.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.60%-4.00%0.150.060.060.100.170.150.220.150.040.10
YoY Growth--160.93%-8.75%-33.88%-41.87%12.58%-32.70%43.00%282.14%-59.36%-56.81%
Dividend Yield--2.00%0.69%0.58%0.76%3.13%2.14%2.47%1.20%0.18%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.625.393.23
Cash Retained (M)4.704.704.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.62-5.39-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.92-0.681.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.04240.04240.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate-17.57%-17.57%-17.57%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Fair Value$28.57$31.56$33.70
Upside / Downside190.32%220.73%242.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.1143.2943.4743.6643.8444.0345.35
Payout Ratio89.09%89.27%89.45%89.64%89.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4038.6538.8939.1339.3839.6241.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-17.57%-17.57%-17.57%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)46.4146.8847.35
Year 2 PV (M)56.0957.2358.37
Year 3 PV (M)67.7969.8671.96
Year 4 PV (M)81.9385.2788.72
Year 5 PV (M)99.01104.09109.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,481.3511,019.1711,578.85
Equity Value (M)10,832.5811,382.5011,954.63
Shares Outstanding (M)240.04240.04240.04
Fair Value$45.13$47.42$49.80
Upside / Downside358.62%381.90%406.12%

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