Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (002709.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.41 - $48.09$16.89
Multi-Stage$5.76 - $6.29$6.02
Blended Fair Value$11.45
Current Price$38.17
Upside-69.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.82%43.58%0.340.630.260.080.040.040.040.040.010.01
YoY Growth---44.96%137.47%250.46%97.09%-13.57%2.22%16.14%192.58%19.18%15.28%
Dividend Yield--1.85%2.70%0.63%0.16%0.16%0.77%0.73%0.43%0.14%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)566.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)315.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.2570.7842.47
Cash Retained (M)315.52315.52315.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.25-70.78-42.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.27244.74273.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.391,953.391,953.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.41$16.89$48.09
Upside / Downside-75.34%-55.75%25.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)566.24603.05642.24683.99728.45775.80799.07
Payout Ratio44.28%53.42%62.57%71.71%80.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.72322.16401.83490.50588.99698.22739.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)295.23298.03300.82
Year 2 PV (M)337.45343.87350.36
Year 3 PV (M)377.47388.30399.34
Year 4 PV (M)415.36431.34447.77
Year 5 PV (M)451.22473.02495.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,367.169,819.5910,289.35
Equity Value (M)11,243.8811,754.1512,283.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.391,953.391,953.39
Fair Value$5.76$6.02$6.29
Upside / Downside-84.92%-84.24%-83.53%

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