Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Mason Technologies Co.,Ltd (002654.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.76 - $1.24$0.97
Multi-Stage$1.08 - $1.19$1.13
Blended Fair Value$1.05
Current Price$15.97
Upside-93.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.41%8.29%0.040.000.050.050.060.050.050.040.010.01
YoY Growth--5,377.02%-98.64%1.83%-17.67%27.44%-12.53%35.06%173.58%37.53%-37.50%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.01%0.86%1.17%1.71%1.12%1.05%0.57%0.13%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.447.154.29
Cash Retained (M)15.6915.6915.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.44-7.15-4.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.258.5411.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)845.04845.04845.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate1.12%2.12%3.12%
Fair Value$0.76$0.97$1.24
Upside / Downside-95.25%-93.91%-92.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.2158.4259.6660.9262.2163.5365.44
Payout Ratio72.58%76.06%79.55%83.03%86.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.5244.4347.4550.5853.8257.1860.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate1.12%2.12%3.12%
Year 1 PV (M)40.6141.0241.42
Year 2 PV (M)39.6540.4341.23
Year 3 PV (M)38.6339.7840.96
Year 4 PV (M)37.5739.0740.63
Year 5 PV (M)36.4838.3240.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)723.87760.38798.34
Equity Value (M)916.80959.001,002.81
Shares Outstanding (M)845.04845.04845.04
Fair Value$1.08$1.13$1.19
Upside / Downside-93.21%-92.89%-92.57%

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