Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dalian Insulator Group Co., Ltd (002606.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.66 - $80.90$75.81
Multi-Stage$45.78 - $50.25$47.97
Blended Fair Value$61.89
Current Price$8.77
Upside605.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.58%0.19%0.090.050.050.030.020.020.040.070.060.07
YoY Growth--71.60%15.18%49.28%37.01%1.33%-41.47%-47.34%19.98%-17.30%-18.64%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.76%0.44%0.32%0.33%0.32%0.52%0.91%0.29%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)170.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.1921.3712.82
Cash Retained (M)140.85140.85140.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.19-21.37-12.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.66119.48128.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.28420.28420.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate2.66%2.66%2.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.66$75.81$80.90
Upside / Downside682.92%764.43%822.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)170.95182.07193.90206.50219.93234.22241.25
Payout Ratio17.61%32.09%46.57%61.04%75.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.1158.4290.29126.06166.09210.80223.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.66%2.66%2.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.3756.9157.44
Year 2 PV (M)84.0785.6787.29
Year 3 PV (M)113.26116.51119.82
Year 4 PV (M)143.99149.53155.22
Year 5 PV (M)176.34184.86193.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,667.4819,569.1220,505.28
Equity Value (M)19,241.5120,162.6021,118.75
Shares Outstanding (M)420.28420.28420.28
Fair Value$45.78$47.97$50.25
Upside / Downside422.04%447.03%472.97%

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