Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Zhangqiu Blower Co., Ltd (002598.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.42 - $2.53$1.88
Multi-Stage$1.69 - $1.85$1.76
Blended Fair Value$1.82
Current Price$11.70
Upside-84.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.46%-3.62%0.140.150.150.030.210.210.010.200.200.10
YoY Growth---9.03%0.93%452.19%-86.87%-3.47%2,109.04%-95.13%0.00%100.00%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%1.69%1.22%0.31%3.11%3.65%0.12%2.40%1.68%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.353.972.38
Cash Retained (M)23.4023.4023.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.35-3.97-2.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.0519.4321.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)312.71312.71312.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Fair Value$1.42$1.88$2.53
Upside / Downside-87.90%-83.89%-78.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.7332.7833.8634.9836.1437.3338.45
Payout Ratio26.26%39.01%51.75%64.50%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.3312.7917.5322.5627.9233.6035.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)11.7111.8211.93
Year 2 PV (M)14.6914.9815.27
Year 3 PV (M)17.3117.8318.35
Year 4 PV (M)19.6120.3921.19
Year 5 PV (M)21.6122.6923.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)442.17464.21487.12
Equity Value (M)527.10551.91577.66
Shares Outstanding (M)312.71312.71312.71
Fair Value$1.69$1.76$1.85
Upside / Downside-85.59%-84.92%-84.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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