Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhejiang VIE Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002590.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.79 - $25.85$14.95
Multi-Stage$6.67 - $7.29$6.98
Blended Fair Value$10.96
Current Price$15.29
Upside-28.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.64%-6.38%0.040.120.120.080.120.040.070.050.070.08
YoY Growth---70.05%3.96%56.78%-38.33%176.03%-37.43%33.88%-28.15%-12.04%17.61%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.90%1.26%0.99%1.96%0.65%0.81%0.47%0.41%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.3426.4615.88
Cash Retained (M)170.21170.21170.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.34-26.46-15.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.87143.75154.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)505.44505.44505.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.79$14.95$25.85
Upside / Downside-35.98%-2.25%69.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.68225.44240.10255.70272.33290.03298.73
Payout Ratio19.59%33.67%47.76%61.84%75.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.4775.91114.66158.12206.74261.02276.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.9269.5870.23
Year 2 PV (M)94.5196.3198.13
Year 3 PV (M)118.33121.72125.19
Year 4 PV (M)140.47145.87151.42
Year 5 PV (M)161.01168.78176.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,789.052,923.763,063.63
Equity Value (M)3,372.283,526.023,685.45
Shares Outstanding (M)505.44505.44505.44
Fair Value$6.67$6.98$7.29
Upside / Downside-56.36%-54.37%-52.31%

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