Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.66 - $134.03$125.60
Multi-Stage$22.12 - $24.21$23.14
Blended Fair Value$74.37
Current Price$25.78
Upside188.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-73.81%-45.37%0.000.510.370.260.300.200.060.010.030.43
YoY Growth---99.95%35.83%43.49%-14.09%50.00%232.68%508.56%-62.01%-93.98%314.81%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.58%0.91%1.01%0.54%1.16%0.73%0.13%0.24%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)694.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)322.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.8386.7752.06
Cash Retained (M)372.03372.03372.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.83-86.77-52.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.20285.26319.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.031,030.031,030.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.66$125.60$134.03
Upside / Downside236.14%387.21%419.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)694.16739.28787.33838.50893.01951.05979.58
Payout Ratio46.41%55.12%63.84%72.56%81.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)322.12407.52502.66608.44725.85855.95906.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)380.28383.89387.49
Year 2 PV (M)437.71446.04454.46
Year 3 PV (M)494.41508.60523.06
Year 4 PV (M)550.39571.56593.33
Year 5 PV (M)605.66634.92665.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,313.2321,294.3622,313.05
Equity Value (M)22,781.6823,839.3724,936.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.031,030.031,030.03
Fair Value$22.12$23.14$24.21
Upside / Downside-14.21%-10.22%-6.09%

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