Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baoding Technology Co., Ltd. (002552.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.95 - $87.72$82.21
Multi-Stage$12.77 - $13.97$13.36
Blended Fair Value$47.79
Current Price$16.11
Upside196.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS219.42%32.34%0.290.010.040.000.170.000.020.030.010.01
YoY Growth--2,372.29%-69.84%0.00%-100.00%19,385.33%-94.69%-37.33%272.32%-51.42%-17.66%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.09%0.21%0.00%1.50%0.01%0.21%0.31%0.04%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3823.3614.02
Cash Retained (M)71.8671.8671.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.38-23.36-14.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.4848.5057.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)423.70423.70423.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.95$82.21$87.72
Upside / Downside110.74%410.31%444.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.89199.04211.98225.76240.43256.06263.74
Payout Ratio61.55%67.24%72.93%78.62%84.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.03133.84154.60177.49202.71230.45243.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.37125.55126.73
Year 2 PV (M)133.51136.05138.62
Year 3 PV (M)142.45146.54150.70
Year 4 PV (M)151.19157.00162.98
Year 5 PV (M)159.73167.44175.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,701.394,928.475,164.24
Equity Value (M)5,412.645,661.065,918.73
Shares Outstanding (M)423.70423.70423.70
Fair Value$12.77$13.36$13.97
Upside / Downside-20.70%-17.06%-13.29%

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