Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co., Ltd. (002549.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.87 - $1.36$1.09
Multi-Stage$1.18 - $1.29$1.24
Blended Fair Value$1.16
Current Price$24.34
Upside-95.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.52%6.86%0.030.030.080.080.130.120.060.090.010.02
YoY Growth---2.14%-58.50%0.69%-42.65%11.56%89.36%-31.05%722.42%-46.74%29.69%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.41%0.54%0.48%1.48%1.95%0.84%1.46%0.13%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.027.514.51
Cash Retained (M)49.2349.2349.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.02-7.51-4.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.2141.7244.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)695.18695.18695.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$0.87$1.09$1.36
Upside / Downside-96.44%-95.51%-94.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.1161.1462.1863.2464.3265.4267.38
Payout Ratio18.10%32.48%46.86%61.24%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8819.8629.1438.7348.6458.8862.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)18.0818.2618.44
Year 2 PV (M)24.1624.6425.13
Year 3 PV (M)29.2430.1131.01
Year 4 PV (M)33.4334.7836.17
Year 5 PV (M)36.8438.7140.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)678.34712.69748.43
Equity Value (M)820.09859.20899.82
Shares Outstanding (M)695.18695.18695.18
Fair Value$1.18$1.24$1.29
Upside / Downside-95.15%-94.92%-94.68%

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