Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yantai Shuangta Food Co., Ltd. (002481.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.98 - $2.07$1.39
Multi-Stage$1.02 - $1.12$1.07
Blended Fair Value$1.23
Current Price$5.56
Upside-77.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.00%5.35%0.060.010.020.120.030.040.040.070.040.05
YoY Growth--376.49%-29.15%-84.03%232.30%-14.11%-2.47%-39.33%59.44%-4.61%21.60%
Dividend Yield--1.25%0.31%0.32%1.36%0.31%0.37%1.03%1.65%0.53%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.228.264.96
Cash Retained (M)32.8432.8432.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.22-8.26-4.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.6124.5727.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,228.921,228.921,228.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$0.98$1.39$2.07
Upside / Downside-82.35%-74.99%-62.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.1269.0072.0075.1378.4081.8184.26
Payout Ratio50.34%58.27%66.20%74.13%82.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.2840.2047.6655.7064.3473.6377.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)36.9137.2737.62
Year 2 PV (M)40.1740.9541.74
Year 3 PV (M)43.1044.3645.65
Year 4 PV (M)45.7047.5049.34
Year 5 PV (M)48.0150.3852.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,041.101,092.461,145.82
Equity Value (M)1,255.001,312.911,373.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,228.921,228.921,228.92
Fair Value$1.02$1.07$1.12
Upside / Downside-81.63%-80.79%-79.91%

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